In this installment of the state-by-state series, I examine the newest Mexico there is, New Mexico. A relatively small state with relatively large swings in its margin of victory, to the intelligent human eye it seems to be somewhat unpredictable, with perhaps a chance of being a bit more democratic than the nation as a whole.
Democrats did better in New Mexico than in the nation as a whole in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections, and when they did worse, it was only by 1-2%. By contrast, when democrats did better in New Mexico than they did in the nation as a whole, they've lately been doing 6-10% better. This adds up to a prediction that democrats will do better in New Mexico than the nation as a whole by about 7.1% (based on my simple linear fit model). This is a close one, but I'm going to color it blue in our little map:
The Democrats seem to be doing well. However, keep in mind that in this map, blue and red are more like the projections of which party would win that state if the overall popular vote was at or near a tie. If one party has a large 4% advantage over the other, then a state like New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, or North Carolina may well flip.
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