This is the next post in our series, "How are the swing states doing anyway?" Next up, we have Pennsylvania, which has been consistently just a little more democratic than the nation as a whole:
It has jumped around a little bit, so it's hard to discern any real trend other than "probably steady". Quantitatively this translates into our 2016 prediction: Pennsylvania will probably be around 2.6% more democratic than the rest of the nation (68% chance for a democratic advantage between 1.15-4.05%, with large assumptions including a straight-line fit through the historic dem advantage).
Without a clear trend, I won't even try to come up with any kind of guess about what demographic, political, or economic events could have been causing these observed numbers.
Once I complete this kind of analysis for all of the swingier states, I'll be able to construct a model predicting which states are likely to be the tipping point states, and what kind of national vote totals will translate into an electoral college win on either side.
Without a clear trend, I won't even try to come up with any kind of guess about what demographic, political, or economic events could have been causing these observed numbers.
Once I complete this kind of analysis for all of the swingier states, I'll be able to construct a model predicting which states are likely to be the tipping point states, and what kind of national vote totals will translate into an electoral college win on either side.
No comments:
Post a Comment